Snapshot on Scenario Building

Snapshot on scenario building

This 1-pager falls under the Risk analysis / Contingency Planning / Preparedness folder of the NiE toolkit

Key resources:

ACAPS Scenario development method

UNICEF EWEA platform

Why scenario building?

In many cases, Nutrition Contingency Palns and/or Response Plan are designed solely based on one scenario, often whereby a few hundreds of thousand people are affected by a disaster of a small to medium scale.

It is recommended to have more anticipated scenarios e.g., disaster if medium level of intensity and exceptional critical scenario and that be done based on the risk analysis performed in a previous step (see snapshot on Risk analysis in that same NiE toolkit folder, link here[CB1] ). It is important to include for these different scenario and their respective associated risks notions of likelihood / frequency / anticipated impact for each of the risks listed.

How to build scenario?

To consider a scenario building method that uses a chain of plausibility approach, integrating potential events into a plausible and realistic narrative, more nuanced than just sorting them by a differentiated order of intensity or impact. This has the potential to produce a few set of more plausible scenario (baselines scenario, alternative scenario, extreme scenario) and have more practical plans anticipated for each accordingly. ACAPS has a methodology[1] describing this approach that has been used recently in Indonesia to anticipate and prepare for the consequences of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. Alternatively use the UNICEF EWEAA potential threats and projected humanitarian consequences scenario[2].

Regardless the methodology used, it is recommended to develop these scenario collectively, for example via the organization of a workshop with NiE task force and partners toward joint scenario building, impact anticipation and joint design of Nutrition contingency plan accordingly.

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